Fundamental Law: Supply & Demand

Prinsip dasar ekonomi:

  • Demand naik + Supply tetap = Harga naik
  • Supply naik + Demand tetap = Harga turun
  • Demand turun + Supply turun = Tergantung mana yang lebih dominan

Contoh sederhana:

2020: Pandemi → Demand minyak collapse (lockdown, no travel) → Harga drop $60 ke $20 (-67%)

2021: Ekonomi reopen → Demand recovery + OPEC cut supply → Harga naik $20 ke $85 (+325%)

Analisis Demand (Permintaan): 5 Faktor Kunci

1. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Global

Indikator yang dipantau: Global GDP Growth, PMI Manufacturing (>50 ekspansi), Industrial Production Index.

Logic: Ekonomi tumbuh → Pabrik produksi lebih banyak → Butuh lebih banyak bahan baku (logam, energi, pertanian).

Cara apply: Monitor IMF World Economic Outlook (quarterly). Fokus pada China (30% konsumsi komoditas global).

2. Seasonal Demand Pattern

Banyak komoditas punya seasonal pattern:

  • Energi (Minyak, Gas): Q4-Q1 (Winter: demand heating naik), Q2-Q3 (Summer: demand driving naik).
  • Pertanian (Gandum, Jagung): Pre-harvest (harga tinggi), Post-harvest (harga turun).
  • CPO: Peak production Maret-April, September-Oktober.
Strategy: Buy off-season (supply tinggi, harga rendah), sell peak-season (demand tinggi, harga naik).

3. Substitusi dan Kompetitor

Komoditas bisa digantikan (misal: CPO diganti soybean oil; Natural gas diganti coal).

Cara analisis: Monitor harga komoditas kompetitor. Jika spread terlalu lebar, demand komoditas yang mahal bisa turun (buyer switch).

4. Consumer Behavior & Trends

Shift jangka panjang:

  • EV Revolution: Demand lithium, nikel, kobalt meledak. Demand minyak plateau/turun.
  • Plant-based Diet: Demand soybean, pea protein naik.
  • Sustainability Movement: Demand "ethical" palm oil (RSPO certified).

Investment implication: Identify mega-trend early, position before market price in.

5. Geopolitical & Policy Factors

Government policy bisa create/destroy demand (Contoh: Biofuel Mandate Indonesia B30 menciptakan *floor price* untuk CPO).

Cara monitor: Subscribe Reuters, Bloomberg Commodities. Antisipasi kebijakan sebelum implementasi.

Analisis Supply (Penawaran): 5 Faktor Kunci

1. Production Data

Data yang harus dimonitor:

  • Weekly: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report (High inventory = bearish).
  • Monthly: OPEC Production Report, USDA Crop Report (untuk pertanian).

Cara interpret: Actual < Forecast = Bullish (undersupply). Contoh: USDA forecast produksi jagung turun karena *drought*.

2. Weather & Natural Disasters

Weather adalah *wild card* (Contoh: El Nino menyebabkan *drought* di Asia Tenggara, menekan produksi CPO/karet).

Cara monitor: Weather.com, NOAA untuk prediksi El Nino/La Nina.

Studi Kasus: Frost di Brazil (2021) merusak 20% *coffee crop* → Harga Arabica naik 100%.

3. Technology & Productivity

Teknologi bisa *boost supply* (Contoh: Fracking Revolution di US Shale meningkatkan produksi minyak secara masif, menurunkan *pricing power* OPEC).

Investment implication: Teknologi adalah *long-term bearish* untuk harga komoditas (tapi *bullish* untuk produsen yang mengadopsi awal).

4. Geopolitical Risk & Supply Disruption

Konflik bisa memutus supply (Contoh: Rusia-Ukraina membuat harga gandum dan gas melonjak. Sanksi Iran mengurangi supply minyak).

Contoh Indonesia: CPO export ban (2022) → Global supply shock → Price spike 50%.

5. Inventory Levels

Stockpile adalah *buffer*:

  • High Inventory: Stock banyak, harga cenderung sideways/turun (Bearish signal).
  • Low Inventory: Stock tipis, harga sensitif ke *supply shock* (Bullish signal).

Data source: EIA (oil), USDA (grain), LME (metal).

Framework 5-Step untuk Prediksi Harga

Step 1: Identify Current Balance

Apakah market saat ini surplus atau deficit? Cek inventory level (High/Normal/Low?).

Step 2: Forecast Demand Change (Scoring -3 hingga +3)

Apakah ekonomi global accelerating? Ada seasonal peak? Ada policy yang create new demand?

Step 3: Forecast Supply Change (Scoring -3 hingga +3)

Apakah production increasing? Ada geopolitical risk? Apakah weather favorable?

Step 4: Net Outlook

Net Score = Demand Score + Supply Score

Interpretasi: +4 hingga +6 (Very bullish), -3 hingga -1 (Bearish).

Step 5: Monitor & Adjust

Apakah thesis masih valid? Quarterly review. Adjust position accordingly.

Studi Kasus Lengkap: Crude Oil Q1 2025

Net Score = +2 (Demand) + +1 (Supply) = +3 (Bullish)

Action: Buy oil exposure (saham MEDC atau oil ETF), target $85-90/barrel.

Tools & Resources

Data sources: EIA.gov (energy), USDA.gov (agriculture), Investing.com (real-time price).

Reports to read: IEA Monthly Oil Market Report, USDA WASDE.

Call to Action: Become a Supply-Demand Expert! 📊

Prediksi harga bukan *magic*—it's systematic analysis.

30-Day Challenge:

  • Week 1: Pilih 1 Komoditas (Contoh: Crude oil), pelajari *basic drivers*.
  • Week 2: Kumpulkan data (EIA, OPEC, China economic data).
  • Week 3: Buat Forecast menggunakan 5-step framework.
  • Week 4: *Track & Learn* (Bandingkan actual vs forecast).

Daily routine (20 min): Check harga, baca berita, update mental model.

Master supply-demand analysis, and you'll have edge over 90% retail investors. Start your journey today!